Week 6 2022 Preview
Spreads & Over/Unders for Each of Our Top Games
Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #43!
Today is our sixth of 14 weekly previews.
For this week’s post, we’ve got the following sections in store:
Big Games: A brief overview of 2-5 of the State’s biggest games
Fun Facts: A smattering of ‘fun facts’ about matchups occurring that week
Other Info: General football information (polls, etc.)
Lastly, if you haven’t checked out our Week 5 Computer Rankings, I highly suggest you read that before continuing (link below).
Before we jump into post, I want to take a second and thank you guys, the members of our community. The support we receive from you all is the reason we continue to post these updates, and we are proud to say that we now have over 743 subscribers! Let’s keep pushing to 1000!
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Week 6 Big Games
We’ve talked a lot about parity on this newsletter of late, and, if Week 6’s slate has anything to say about it, we will continue to discuss it.
Just take a look at our two feature matchups. Both games have spreads of less than 8 points, and both feature the potential for three way ties atop their conferences.
In the first, Grandville very well could pull the upset over Rockford (we assign about a 30-40% probability of that happening). If that happens, and then Rockford beats Caledonia in Week 9 (a game in which the Rams would be only a 4 point underdog as of now), you would see a scenario where the OK Red has three co-champions.
The same dynamic may play out in the CHSL Central - as of now, DLS is favored by 8 over DCC. This means that in the model’s expected case, we will have a three way tie atop this league (DLS beat DCC who beat Brother Rice who beat DLS).
This sort of competitiveness across leagues is good for the game writ large - better games means more engaged communities and kids. Let’s celebrate it while we’ve got it.
Grandville vs. Rockford
DCC vs. Warren DLS
4 Sets of Fun Facts for Week 6
The Best Game in Every Division
Take a look at the model’s spread on the South Christian / GRCC matchup. You read that right - we’ve got South Christian favored by 5 points.
If things go that way, the State’s longest win streak (42 straight games!) will be coming to an end Friday night.
The Playoff Wizard Users agree with our model that this game will be close - however, they are pulling in the opposite direction (53% in favor of GRCC).
Should be a good one!
Tracking the Champs
Of our eight returning State Champs, THREE have games with one score spreads this week (DLS, GRCC, and Pewamo-Westphalia).
If things go chalk, we will be down to merely two returning State Champs who have yet to be defeated (Belleville & Hudson).
Again, you love to see that level of parity.
Games Between 5-0 Teams
There are FIVE matchups between undefeated teams this week.
Our model only has one as being fairly close - thats the GRCC / South Christian matchup that we’ve been discussing above.
However, look at how the Playoff Wizard Users are picking them - they’ve got close ones in all but the Dundee / Clinton game.
The Durand / Gladstone matchup in particular is quite close - we’ve got 51% of users pulling in favor of the Railroaders! That’s a 1% edge!
Finally, let’s talk about some other Week 6 fun facts that the model is spitting out:
Game w/ the highest over/under: (83)
Southfield A&T vs. Bloomfield Hills
Game w/ the lowest over/under: (13)
Harper Woods Chandler Park vs. Romulus Summit Academy
Pick ‘em Games: (6)
Zeeland West vs. Mona Shores
Lapeer vs. Grand Blanc
Livonia Churchill vs. Dearborn Fordson
L’Anse Creuse vs. SCS Lakeview
Utica Eisenhower vs. New Baltimore Anchor Bay
St Joseph vs. Portage Northern
Lot’s of pick ‘em games this week!
Other Useful Information
The Week 5 Coaches Poll was just released on Tuesday. Check it out here if you’d like to see how the State’s coaches are ranking the teams in all 8 11-man divisions:
The Week 5 AP Poll also released this week. Check it out at the link below:
That’s all for today! We hope everyone has a great Week 6.
Check back here on Monday for the next edition of our Goosepoop Computer Ratings.
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