The Wrap-Up: Week 8 2021
Hi all,
As promised in our Week 8 preview last week, we’re sending along a week-in-review email that gives you a quick rundown on how the week played out across the state.
Within, you’ll find sections devoted to the following:
Last week’s big games (Big Game Review)
Tracking remaining unbeaten teams (Survivor Island)
Teams leading the state in various categories (Superlatives)
An update on how the new playoff methodology is playing out (Playoff Picture)
A preview of next week’s biggest / bigger / big games (Week 9 Preview)
Before you start reading, make sure you subscribe….. that way you wont miss our Thursday email previewing all of Week 9’s big games!
Week 8 Big Game Review
Given that Week 8 featured no games between undefeated opponents, we changed course from our normal weekly preview cadence, and reviewed the 5 games with just one loss between the two opponents involved:
Grand Blanc (7-0) vs. Lapeer (6-1)
Troy (7-0) vs. Berkley (6-1)
Warren De La Salle (6-0) vs. Harper Woods (6-1)
Mount Pleasant (7-0) vs. Bay City Western (6-1)
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (7-0) vs. Cedar Springs (6-1)
You can read our full preview for yourself, but for a quick recap of how each game played out, see below.
Lapeer at Grand Blanc
In what was very much a mud bowl on the grass at Grand Blanc, Grand Blanc won, 30-6. The near shutout, combined with the 24 point margin is impressive here, considering that Grand Rapids Catholic Central, another unbeaten team, beat Lapeer by 22 in Week 1, but allowed 21 points in the course of doing so. Perhaps the weather played a role here in limiting both team’s production, but from a strict comparison point of view, this win continues to pad the resume of Grand Blanc, who now owns wins over Lapeer, 7-1 Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central, and 4 other teams with winning records. Grand Blanc is also now the SVL South champ, and will head into their Week 9 matchup with Saginaw 8-0.
Highlights / Press Coverage:
Here’s Jonathan Deutsch of Mid Michigan NOW with some highlights:
And here’s Mlive’s post game coverage
Playoff Wizard Users’ Prediction : 53.8% Grand Blanc. CORRECT.
Troy at Berkley
The dream season continues. With their 10-7 win over Berkley on Friday night, Troy is now 8-0 for the first time since 1997. This win continued Troy’s trend of stout defense, with Berkley’s offensive total on the night coming very close to Troy’s season average for points allowed (6.5). Troy themselves mustered very little offense, needing a last second field goal to seal the win (see below for video).
With the win, Troy’s resume is solidified a bit: coming into Week 8, Troy’s opponents had only won 13 games total (average record of 2-5). Berkley, who had only 1 loss and had beaten undefeated Livonia Clarenceville the week before, is a good win. Another potential good win looms in Week 9: Troy will meet fellow 8-0 Bloomfield Hills, in a game that will decide the OAA-B title, and will certainly be one of Goose Dropping’s Week 9 Big Games (stay tuned).
Highlights / Press Coverage:
Here’s Troy’s game-winning field goal:
And here’s the Oakland Press’s post-game coverage
Playoff Wizard Users’ Prediction : 84.2% Berkley. INCORRECT (the Wizard’s first loss ever)!
Harper Woods vs. Warren De La Salle (@ Wayne State)
With their win over Harper Woods (47-26), De La Salle continues to add to what is perhaps the State’s most impressive resume. They now own wins over 5-2 River Rouge, 6-2 DCC, and 6-2 Harper Woods…. plus 2 other winning record teams. DLS will finish out next week in the Prep Bowl against UD Jesuit, a rematch of Week 7, where they won 44-7.
While it wasn’t a win, Harper Woods’s performance showed that they are very much game, and are a real threat in D3: they scored 26 points on a defense that gave up only a combined 23 to Brother Rice and DCC. They will finish out their regular season next week against Ecorse, who is also 6-2.
Highlights / Press Coverage:
Here’s State Champs with some highlights from the 1st half:
And here’s the post game wrap-up from De La Salle’s site
Playoff Wizard Users’ Prediction : 88.2% De La Salle. CORRECT.
Mount Pleasant at Bay City Western
In our other mudbowl of the week, Mount Pleasant stayed undefeated, beating BCW 31-16. Similar to Troy, this win helps to solidify an otherwise shaky resume from Mount Pleasant: coming into Week 8, their opponents had won just 11 games, which was tied for worst in the MHSAA. However, we should not weight this too heavily: BCW, while 6-1, and faced opponents with only 15 wins.
The win locks up an SVL Red title for Mount Pleasant, and they will finish the season at home against 4-4 Saginaw Heritage.
Highlights / Press Coverage:
Here’s Jonathan Deutsch once again with highlights from the game:
And here’s Mlive’s post game coverage
Playoff Wizard Users’ Prediction : 77.8% BCW. INCORRECT.
Grand Rapids Catholic Central at Cedar Springs
With a 30 game win streak and the OK Gold title on the line, GRCC won a shootout at Cedar Springs, prevailing 41-40. In a game that was back and forth all night, the result came down to the final minute, with Cedar Springs’ two point conversion attempt failing.
This win further solidifies GRCC’s case for the top team in D5, as they now own wins over both a 6-2 D1 (Lapeer) and 6-2 D3 (Cedar).
Cedar, to their credit, legitimized themselves quite a bit with their performance: while they were 6-1 coming in, their schedule to date had been a bit lacking with quality wins, as their OK gold opponents had averaged less than a 2-5 record, and their lone loss, while legitimate (Rockford), was quite substantial (35-6).
Highlights / Press Coverage:
Here’s Fox 17 with highlights & post game coverage:
Playoff Wizard Users’ Prediction : 57.9% GRCC. CORRECT.
Other Big Games
Outside of our heavy hitters, we also previewed the 7 games last week where each team had only one loss. In that preview, we discussed how our Playoff Wizard users were predicting the outcomes of each game, with the following graphic shared:
Once again, Playoff Wizard users got more games right than wrong, correctly predicting the outcomes of 5 games, with the only losses coming from Whitehall, who prevailed over their cross-lake rival, Montague, and Charlevoix, who beat Mancelona in a game Playoff Wizard Users were split down the middle on (does this count against their record?)
Combining these picks with the two spotlight games above, Playoff Wizard users were 8-3-1 on the weekend, bringing their season total to 16-3-1 (we started last week). Nice work!
Survivor Island: Unbeaten Teams
Week 8 action gave only 1 team their first loss of the season (D7 Bad Axe), dropping the total count of unbeaten teams from 33 to 32. Here’s a full list of those 32:
Division 1
Troy
Brownstown Woodhaven
Rochester Adams
Bloomfield Hills
Saline
Grand Blanc
Rockford
Troy & Bloomfield Hills will play each other week 9 for the OAA-B title.
Division 2
South Lyon
Warren De La Salle Collegiate
Division 3
Mount Pleasant
Riverview
Division 4
Edwardsburg
Chelsea
Hudsonville Unity Christian
Division 5
Gladwin
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
Kingsley
Marine City
Frankenmuth
Berrien Springs
Comstock Park
Kingsley will play Division 7 unbeaten Traverse City St Francis in Week 9.
Division 6
Jonesville
Millington
Constantine
Lansing Catholic
While it hasn’t been announced yet, we’re guessing Jonesville will play their crossover next week against Division 8 unbeaten Addison.
Additionally, Lansing Catholic will play Division 7 unbeaten Pewamo-Westphalia in Week 9.
Division 7
Pewamo-Westphalia
Detroit Central
Lawton
Traverse City St Francis
Dropping Out: Bad Axe (lost to Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port, 21-20)
Pewamo-Westphalia and TCSF will both square off against unbeaten foes from higher divisions in Week 9.
Division 8
Hudson
Addison
Ubly
Addison will likely face unbeaten D6 Jonesville in their crossover game Week 9.
Superlatives
Week 7
Most Points Scored: Muskegon Mona Shores (76) against Holland
Largest Margin of Victory: Edwardsburg over Dowagiac (69 - 0)
Largest Upset (by Record): Tie. Livonia Stevenson (3-4) over Livonia Churchill (3-4); Hopkins (3-4) over Frankfort (6-1); SCS Lakeview (3-4) over Saint Clair (6-1)
Largest Upset (by Playoff Points): Livonia Stevenson (41.1) over Livonia Churchill (67.0)
Most Total Points: Madison Heights Lamphere vs. Marysville (62-46)
Lowest Total Points: Tie. Saginaw Swan Valley vs. Bay City John Glenn (6-0); Eaton Rapids vs. Leslie (6-0)
Season-to-Date:
Average Points Scored (highest): Lawton (56.9)
Average Points Scored (lowest): U Prep Science & Math (0)
Average Points Allowed (highest): Coloma (60.3)
Average Points Allowed (lowest): Edwardsburg (3.6)
Average Margin of Victory (highest): Edwardsburg (51.6)
Average Margin of Victory (lowest): Okemos (-56.5)
Total wins by opponents (highest): Niles Brandywine (46)
Total wins by opponents (lowest): Tie. Stockbridge and Mount Pleasant (18)
MHSAA Bonus Points (highest)
: Oxford (28.5)MHSAA Bonus Points (lowest): Stockbridge (5.9)
Avg. Opponent margin of victory (highest): Ogemaw Heights (18.1)
Avg. Opponent margin of victory (lowest): Comstock (-17.5)
Playoff Picture
Updated Week 8 playoff point calculations are now on the MHSAA’s site. If your team is currently in the top 32 of total playoff points within their division, they would make the playoffs if they started today.
Given that the methodology for calculating playoff points changed this year, there will be teams with losing records that make the playoffs for the first time in history. Vis versa, some teams with 6+ wins will be left on the outside looking in. Below is a quick snapshot of where this is trending:
Teams w/ losing records currently IN the playoffs:
Livonia Franklin (D2)
Auburn Hills Avondale (D3)
Battle Creek Central (D3)
Mattawan (D3)
Grant (D5)
Flint Powers Catholic (D5)
North Muskegon (D7)
Detroit Loyola (D7)
Decatur (D8)
All of these teams sit at 3-5 or 3-4 except for Flint Powers Catholic, who is currently sitting at 2-6 yet projected to make the playoffs in D5
Teams w/ winning records currently OUT of the playoffs
Fraser (D1)
Davison (D1)
Rochester (D1)
Detroit Cass Tech (D1)
Sault Ste Marie (D4)
Wyoming Godwin Heights (D4)
Flint Hamady (D5)
Kent City (D6)
Napoleon (D6)
Morley Stanwood (D6)
Lake City (D6)
Oscoda (D7)
East Jordan (D7)
Laingsburg (D7)
Most of the teams above are 5-3 or 4-3 except for Kent City (5-2) and East Jordan (6-2)
A Different Way to Look at Playoff Points (cont.)
Outside of how playoff points are shown on the MHSAA site, another interesting way to look at them is to credit teams for the bonus points of opponents they’ve yet to play. We’ve written at length on this subject in a previous post. By doing this analysis this week, the playoff pictures for the following teams would change:
Division 1
Novi (moves from #30 to #34 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Brighton (moves from #32 to #36 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Hudsonville (moves from #33 to #31 and MAKES the playoffs)
Rochester (moves from #35 to #32 and MAKES the playoffs)
Division 2
Livonia Franklin (moves from #30 to #34 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Oak Park (moves from #37 to #31 and MAKES the playoffs)
Division 3
Battle Creek Central (moves from #31 to #34 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
South Lyon East (moves from #33 to #28 and MAKES make the playoffs)
Division 4
Niles (moves from from #30 to #33 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
New Boston Huron (moves from #34 to #30 and MAKES the playoffs)
Division 6
Adrian Madison (moves from #32 to #34 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Detroit Osborn (moves from #34 to #32 and MAKES the playoffs)
Division 7
Union City (moves from #29 to #33 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Laingsburg (moves from #34 to #32 and MAKES the playoffs)
Division 8
Decatur (moves from #31 to #34 and DOES NOT make the playoffs)
Saginaw Nouvel (moves from #33 to #31 and MAKES the playoffs)
Week 9 Preview
Finally, below are some of the big games in store this coming week. Similar to last week, we will be releasing a short viewing guide for each later in the week (probably Thursday), so stay tuned for that.
The Biggest Games (games between undefeated teams)
Troy (8-0) vs. Bloomfield Hills (8-0)
Kingsley (8-0) vs. Traverse City St Francis (8-0)
Lansing Catholic (8-0) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (8-0)
Jonesville (8-0) vs. Addison (8-0)*
The Bigger Games (games between teams with only one loss amongst them)
Brownstown Woodhaven (8-0) vs. Gibraltar Carlson (7-1)
Marine City (8-0) vs. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (7-1)
Gladwin (8-0) vs. Standish-Sterling (7-1)
Ubly (8-0) vs. Bad Axe (7-1)
The Big Games (games between teams with only one loss each)
Romeo vs. Anchor Bay*
Hartland vs. Belleville
Whitehall vs. Reed City
Muskegon Oakridge vs. Muskegon Catholic
Negaunee vs. Ishpeming Westwood
Bishop Foley vs. Clarkston Everest*
The Bubble Games (games between teams currently ranked #29 - #36 in playoff points)
Troy Athens (#30, D1) vs. Auburn Hills Avondale (#30, D3)
Mattawan (#32, D3) vs. Battle Creek Central (#32, D3)
Detroit Cody (#33, D5) vs. Detroit Osborn (#30, D6)
*Crossover games that have yet to be finalized on the MHSAA site
Thanks for reading. If you have any thoughts or comments on what we’ve written, please drop us a comment below:
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As calculated for purposes of the MHSAA playoff point formula. Bonus points are a good measure of a given team’s strength of schedule, and offer an additional level of insight beyond just the sum total of all opponent wins as bonus points consider the division of the team played. For more detail on bonus points, take a look at our previous post on the subject.
Playoff points as calculated in our post, “A Different Way to Look at Playoff Points”