The Wrap-Up: Week 12 2021
Semis are set!
Welcome back for our Week 12 Wrap-Up. See below for what’s in store for this week’s report:
Big Game Review - a short wrap-up on how each of our featured games from Week 12 played out
System Study - some facts on how the new playoff point system fared in its second week
Survivor Island - tracking remaining unbeaten teams
Bracket Busters - identifying the regions & semis in each bracket where underdogs have prevailed
Superlatives - teams leading the state in offense, defense, and other categories
Week 12 Big Games - there are 4 top 6 matchups in Week 12; we will be previewing them all
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Big Game Review
In our Week 12 Preview, we gave you an overview of the 4 matchups occurring between top 8 teams in Week 12. You can read the full preview of each here, but for a quick rundown of how each played out, see below:
Grand Blanc (#4) at Rockford (#1), Saturday 1PM
As we predicted, this one was a dandy. Although Grand Blanc never trailed, these two teams were in lockstep the whole game, with Grand Blanc never leading by more than 7, and Rockford tying the game on 3 separate occasions.
The final score came down to the final seconds, with Rockford faking a PAT attempt instead of playing for overtime. The fake failed, and Grand Blanc won, 28-27.
Grand Blanc now heads to their first semi final in program history, where they will face off against the only other unbeaten team in Division 1, Rochester Adams.
Highlights / Press Coverage
Fox 17 highlights:
Mother Goose’s Pick: Rockford. INCORRECT.
Traverse City Central (#4) vs. Caledonia (#3) @ Grandville, Friday 7PM
This one was not as close as expected - in what were near blizzard conditions on the West side Friday night, Traverse City Central got off to a hot start, leading 35-7 at halftime. The second half was more evenly matched, but Caledonia was unable to close the gap, with Traverse City winning, 42-14.
Without a doubt, this win is Traverse City’s most impressive of the season - Caledonia had only one loss coming in (Rockford), and they had just got done posting an impressive result the week before, where they beat Mona Shores, 49-12.
With the win, Traverse City Central heads to their second straight semi final, where they will face 12-0 South Lyon.
Highlights / Press Coverage
Highlights from State Champs!
Mother Goose’s Pick: Traverse City Central. CORRECT.
Allen Park (#6) at Detroit MLK (#1), Friday 7PM
Midway through the third quarter, Detroit MLK was out to a 21-0 lead. They never looked back from there, finishing off Allen Park with a 28-7 final score.
By some statistics, Detroit MLK now owns what may be the best resume in the state - outside of their forfeit games, their opponents have on average won their games by 9.6 points - this the highest of any team still playing in the State.
The win brings MLK back to their 7th semi final in 10 years. There, they will face #15 Mason, who just got done upsetting #8 Brother Rice.
Highlights / Press Coverage
Here’s Detroit MLK’s HC, Tyrone Spencer, after the game:
Mother Goose’s Pick: Detroit MLK. CORRECT.
Carson City-Crystal (#6) at Beal City (#4), Friday 7PM
At the end of third, Beal City lead 34-0. Carson City-Crystal was able to narrow the gap some from there, but the last effort was not enough, as Beal City prevailed, 34-14.
Beal City now heads into a semi final showdown with unbeaten #5 Ubly - although Beal City will be the favorite by seed, Ubly may be the favorite by momentum. The Bearcats just wrapped up a 65-6 win over a good Breckenridge team.
Ubly will surely be gunning for revenge in this one, as their last game against Beal City (2019 semi final) ended in a 21-20 defeat for the Bearcats.
Highlights / Press Coverage
With the 3-1 record this week, Mother Goose’s playoff pick'em record moves to 13-3.
This is a continuation of a section we first featured in our Week 10 Wrap-Up: we’re tracking how good the new playoff point system is at seeding teams.
Last week, if you picked only the teams with more playoff points to win, you would have been correct 66% of the time. (22 upsets / 64 total games) = 34%
This week, the metric was up substantially: the team with more playoff points won 81% of the time. (6 upsets / 32 total games) = 19%
From a comparative standpoint, if you would have just picked the team with the better record to win, you would have been right only 78% of the time this week. This is up from 56% last week.
As a reminder, the goal of any system used to seed teams should be to have 0 upsets. This is obviously an unobtainable goal, so the fact that this system’s accuracy is hanging in there with the seeding used for the NFL Divisional Round or CFB Playoff Semifinal Round is a good sign (see Week 10 Wrap-Up for more detail on these comparisons).
Lastly, another thing we’re keeping tabs on as a measure of this system is what ‘seeds’ are still in play. Take a look at the below for how this stacks up across the divisions:
Highest Remaining: #4 Grand Blanc
Lowest Remaining: #10 Sterling Heights Stevenson
Highest Remaining: #1 Warren De La Salle
Lowest Remaining: #25 Livonia Franklin
Highest Remaining: #1 Detroit MLK
Lowest Remaining: #22 St Joseph
Highest Remaining: #1 Chelsea
Lowest Remaining: #9 Freeland
Highest Remaining: #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central
Lowest Remaining: #6 Portland
Highest Remaining: #1 Lansing Catholic
Lowest Remaining: #21 Michigan Center
Highest Remaining: #1 Lumen Christi
Lowest Remaining: #8 Lawton
Highest Remaining: #1 Hudson
Lowest Remaining: #5 Ubly
Week 12 action gave only 1 team their first loss of the season, dropping our total number of unbeaten teams to 15:
Dropping Out: Rockford (Lost to Grand Blanc, 28-27)
Grand Blanc and Rochester Adams play each other in a Semi Final game this coming week.
Warren De La Salle Collegiate
The Division 3 State Champion will have at least one loss (the next best record teams, Detroit MLK & DeWitt, currently have one loss)
Hudsonville Unity Christian
Edwardsburg and Unity Christian play each other in a Semi Final game this coming week.
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
Grand Rapids Catholic Central and Frankenmuth play each other in a Semi Final game this coming week.
The Division 6 State Champion will have at least one loss (the next best record teams, Lansing Catholic & Michigan Center, currently have one loss)
Traverse City St Francis
Pewamo-Westphalia and Traverse City St Francis play each other in a Semi Final game this coming week.
Aside from who’s still undefeated, another interesting look at how the playoffs are playing out is analyzing the average seed of each Division’s regions & semis.
By ranking the average seed of each Semi Final from highest to best, you can get a sense of where the bracket is most ‘busted’. Below are the top 3 most ‘busted’ Semis, across all divisions:
#3 - Division 2, Semi 1 (Average Seed 12.0)
#22 St Joseph vs. #2 DeWitt
#2 - Division 6, Semi 2 (Average Seed 12.5)
#21 Michigan Center vs. #4 Warren Michigan Collegiate
#1 - Division 2, Semi 2 (Average Seed 13.0)
#25 Livonia Franklin vs. #1 Warren De La Salle
You can also run this analysis from a Divisional view. Here’s the top 3 most ‘busted’ Divisions:
#3 - Division 2 (Average Seed 8.0)
#25 Livonia Franklin
#4 Traverse City Central
#2 South Lyon
#1 Warren De La Salle
#2 - Division 6 (Average Seed 8.5)
#21 Michigan Center
#4 Warren Michigan Collegiate
#1 Lansing Catholic
#1 - Division 3 (Average Seed 10.0)
#22 St Joseph
#1 Detroit MLK
Finally, here’s the average remaining seed of all divisions:
Division 1: 6.3
Division 2: 8.0
Division 3: 10.0
Division 4: 3.8
Division 5: 3.3
Division 6: 8.5
Division 7: 4.3
Division 8: 3.0
With 2 weeks left to go, Division 8’s bracket retains its status as the most properly seeded, with its 4 remaining teams all having top 5 seeds. Division 5 is close behind, with its 4 remaining teams all having top 6 seeds.
Division 4 is the only division with its top 3 seeds still in (#1 Chelsea, #2 Unity Christian, #3 Edwardsburg)
Largest Upset (by Record): Tie. Livonia Franklin (6-5) over Waterford Mott (7-4); St Joseph (7-4) over Parma Western (8-3)
Largest Upset (by Playoff Points): Mason (56.1) over Brother Rice (62.2)
Most Points Scored: Ubly vs. Breckenridge (65-6)
Most Total Points: Unity Christian vs. Cadillac (53-22)
Lowest Total Points: Hudson vs. White Pigeon (8-0)
Margin of Victory / OTs:
Largest Margin of Victory: Ubly vs. Breckenridge (65-6)
Most Overtimes: South Lyon vs. Portage Central (29-23, 1 OT)
Highest seed to lose: #1 Rockford lost to #4 Grand Blanc, 28-27
Lowest seed to win: #25 Livonia Franklin, beat #24 Waterford Mott, 43-26
Season-to-Date (only reporting teams remaining in the playoff field)
Average Points Scored (highest): 57.8 (Unity Christian)
Average Points Scored (lowest): 25.0 (Livonia Franklin)
Average Points Allowed (highest): 27.9 (Livonia Franklin)
Average Points Allowed (lowest): 4.7 (Edwardsburg)
Margin of Victory:
Average Margin of Victory (highest): 47.9 (Edwardsburg)
Average Margin of Victory (lowest): -2.9 (Livonia Franklin)
Strength of Schedule:
Total wins by opponents (highest): 81 (Portland)
Total wins by opponents (lowest): 53 (Mason)
Avg. Opponent margin of victory (highest): 9.6 (Detroit MLK)
Avg. Opponent margin of victory (lowest): -8.7 (Lawton)
Week 12 Big Games
Last week, we featured the 4 games between top 6 teams in our ‘Big Game’ section. We are once again moving the goalposts - this week’s ‘Big Games’ will feature the 7 matchups between top 5 teams:
#5 Rochester Adams (12-0) vs. #4 Grand Blanc (12-0)
#4 Traverse City Central (11-1) vs. #2 South Lyon (12-0)
#3 Edwardsburg (12-0) vs. #2 Unity Christian (12-0)
#4 Frankenmuth (12-0) vs. #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central (12-0)
#5 Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) vs. #3 Traverse City St Francis (12-0)
#5 Ubly (12-0) vs. #4 Beal City (11-1)
#2 Ottawa Lake-Whiteford (11-1) vs. #1 Hudson (12-0)
Check back in on Thursday for our preview of each game.
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