Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #51!
Today is our tenth of fourteen weekly wrap-ups, where we digest all of the week’s high school football action.
In today’s note, we’ve got the following sections:
Big Game Review - a brief review of last week’s top 5 games
Tracking the Champs - game results from each of the State’s 2021 Champions
Biggest Upsets - the 10 largest upsets from around the State
Model Check-In - how our model fared in picking Week 10 games
Survivor Island - a count of the State’s unbeaten teams
More than Meets the Eye - a look at the remaining teams with losing or .500 records
Computer Ratings - Week 10 computer ratings for every division
Next Week - where next week’s biggest games are
Scroll on to check them out!
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If you follow us on Twitter, you probably saw our big news from last night: we just released our inaugural short film, “The Rise of Hart”.
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Big Game Review
Last week we featured 5 top games (like we do every week).
Below were the spreads on each:
Here’s how they actually ended up:
That’s right - there were upsets in 3 of our 5 top games, with Detroit MLK, Cass Tech, & Romeo all prevailing as the underdog.
What impact did these results have on our rankings? Scroll below to find out!
Tracking the Champs
Let’s check in how our 2021 State Champs fared over the weekend:
Remember, every single one of last year’s State Champs made the 2022 playoffs.
However, we told you last Thursday that three of these teams were expected to lose in round 1 … well, we were wrong - only ONE returning State Champ actually followed suit (Chelsea).
That means we will head into Round 2 with SEVEN of our sitting State Champs still in play. Tune in Thursday to find out how many will be favored to win.
There were 22 upsets this past weekend (per our computer model). We already told you about 3 that occured in our top 5 games, but let’s take a look at where some of the rest of them went down:
In our largest upset of the weekend, Manistee came in a 21 point underdog and took out previously unbeaten Boyne City.
Another notable result was previously unbeaten Redford Union, who dropped a heartbreaker to Livonia Clarenceville.
Model Check - In
How’d our model do this weekend?
Predicted the correct result in 106 out of 128 games (like we said above, there were 22 upsets).
That’s 83% accuracy! We’ll take it!
As an aside, if you don’t believe our record keeping, a reader (@LoxLoaded on Twitter) has set up a website to track our picks & several others. You can see our full W/L record for Week 10 at the link below:
Let’s check-in on the State’s 21 remaining unbeaten teams:
GR Forest Hills Central
GR South Christian
Tecumseh & Riverview play each other in this week’s lone undefeated matchup
If both Whitehall & South Christian win this week, they will meet next week.
Madison Heights Bishop Foley
If both Clinton & Bishop Foley win this week, they will meet next week.
TC St Francis
If both Detroit Central & Napoleon win this week, they will meet next week.
Ottawa Lake Whiteford
If both Beal City & Ubly win this week, they will meet next week.
More than Meets the Eye
Of the State’s 128 remaining teams, SIX have records of .500 or worse. Their names are listed below:
Benzie Central & Parkway Christian both pulled off upsets last week and ended up on our top 10 upsets of the Week post (see above).
Lansing Catholic also had an upset over undefeated Durand (they were a 7 point underdog).
Crazily enough, our model projects a handful of these teams to win again in Week 11. Tune in Thursday to find out who!
Now that we can properly rate the KLAA, Belleville has surged to #3 in D1 and #4 overall.
However, we still rate Rockford & Caledonia slightly ahead of the Tigers. These two teams will play for the second time this year in our Week 11 game of the week.
In D2, Dexter has jumped over GR FHC to take the #2 spot (they are still rated only a half point better).
Speaking of FHC, they will play their toughest game all season this week when they meet D2 #4 Mona Shores in the District final.
With their impressive performance over previous #1 River Rouge last week, Detroit MLK has vaulted over Walled Lake Western to take the top spot in D3. If these two teams met today, we would rate MLK a 2 point favorite.
Close behind these two teams is a surging Muskegon - after spending most of the season rated in the #7-10 range, the Big Reds once again find themselves in the title hunt, rated at #3 and a mere 2 points worse than MLK.
Our top 3 teams remain unchanged; however, #3 Freeland will play #7 Goodrich this weekend in a game that should be decided by a touchdown or less.
Another game to keep an eye on is #6 Tecumseh vs. #9 Riverview. They will meet in Week 11’s lone undefeated matchup.
For the umpteenth time this year, GR Catholic Central is once again ahead of Gladwin.
These two teams have been trading places all season, and, if they meet in the Semi Final, expect an incredible game.
Another game to watch out for is #1 Frankenmuth vs. #6 Swan Valley. We rate the Eagles as a few scores better than SSV, but we will see this weekend if that’s true. If SSV keeps it close, expect Frankenmuth’s rating to drop quite a bit.
In D6, we’re unchanged from last week in the top 4 slots. However, #1 GR West Catholic has widened their lead on the field a bit: we now rate them a touchdown better than their nearest competitor, Clinton.
West Catholic will test this rating this week when they take on #3 Constantine in the District Finals.
In D7, our top two spots remain the same. However, check out our #3 team - after starting the year 0-3, Lumen Christi finds themselves rated #3 in the State.
JLC will test their rating here this weekend when they take on #2 Hudson.
Our final division has perhaps the least amount of change - OLW, Iron Mountain, and Ubly retain the #1, #2, & #3 spots, respectively.
Ubly takes on #5 Saginaw MLS this weekend in a game that will surely be a dogfight.
Week 11 is shaping up to be a huge week. There’s FOUR matchups between semi-final caliber teams, and even ONE matchup between that division’s two best teams.
Top 5 Games Overall
D1 #1 Rockford vs. D1 #2 Caledonia
D1 #4 Davison vs. D1 #7 Clarkston
D1 #6 Cass Tech vs. D1 #9 Southfield A&T
D2 #1 Warren DLS vs. D2 #6 Roseville
D2 #3 GR FHC vs. D2 #4 Mona Shores
Top Game in Every Division
D1: #1 Rockford vs. #2 Caledonia
D2: #3 GR FHC vs. D2 #4 Mona Shores
D3: #2 Walled Lake Western vs. #5 Brother Rice
D4: #6 Tecumseh vs. #9 Riverview
D5: #4 Portland vs. #8 Corunna
D6: #1 West Catholic vs. #3 Constantine
D7: #2 Hudson vs. #3 Lumen Christi
D8: #3 Ubly vs. #5 Saginaw MLS
Games Between Undefeated Teams
D4 #6 Tecumseh vs. D4 #9 Riverview
And that’s all for Week 10, guys! Thanks again for taking the time to read this week’s wrap-up.
Don’t forget to subscribe below so you don’t miss out on our Week 11 preview, which is dropping on Thursday.
Whats the spread on the Franklin vs Bedford game?