Playoffs: Semi Final Spreads
Belleville / Cass Tech, Cal / Clarkston, Dexter / FHC & every other game in the State
Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #56!
Today is our thirteenth of fourteen weekly preview guides. We’ve got the following sections in store:
Semi Final Preview: Spreads and over / unders for every game in the State
Other Info: General football information (polls, etc.)
One other note: if you haven’t yet caught up on what happened last week (round 3 of the Playoffs), I highly suggest you start with our weekly wrap-up, which went out Tuesday.
Within, we calculated each remaining team’s odds of winning the State Title!
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Semi Final Preview
One of the more surprising spreads the model is spitting out this week is the Caledonia / Clarkston matchup. The model likes the Scots by two scores, and that seems a little dangerous given that Clarkston is no stranger to the underdog role (they ‘upset’ Davison in round two as a 9 point underdog).
On the other side of the bracket, undefeated Belleville plays SURGING Cass Tech. The Technicians have rattled off three straight wins over top 10 teams (they’ve been the underdog in 2 out of 3). Can they continue the upset streak? The model assigns them as touchdown underdog here, which gives them around 40% odds of winning.
In our lone undefeated matchup this round, Dexter takes on FHC. It’s a battle of strength on strength, as Dexter’s offense takes on one of the best Defenses in the State. Our model has Dexter by two, but in a very low scoring affair - if the stats hold, this would be Dexter’s lowest point total all year.
On the other side of the bracket, we’ve got the largest spread of the week, where DLS is a 38 point favorite over Groves. Groves proved the model wrong last week as an 11 point underdog … can they keep the streak going? We expect not as a spread this large implies a ~1% odds of winning (there have only been 3 upsets this year that were this large). We’ll find out this Saturday.
In D3, reigning State Champ Detroit MLK takes on undefeated Mason. We have King as a 9 point favorite, a result that would advance them to their second straight State Final.
It doesn’t get much more tradition-laden than this. Two programs who are no strangers to Ford Field will meet in the Semi final with the highest over/under this week. With a 46 - 38 projected final score, we are expecting plenty of points here, with Muskegon the ultimate victor.
After knocking off formerly undefeated and #1 Whitehall last week, South Christian is your new #1 in D4. This week, they look to avenge last year’s Regional final defeat when they square off with Edwardsburg. The model likes the Sailors this time around, putting a whopping 10 point spread out on the game.
Riverview joins FHC, Mason, Gladwin, Clinton, and Napoleon as being an undefeated team that is also an underdog in Week 13. That said, our spread on the game is only 3 points, and the last time Riverview was an underdog (Week 11 vs Tecumseh), they blew the line out of the water, winning by several scores.
As we hinted above, Gladwin is 12-0 but an underdog against reigning State Champion GRCC. The two teams have been rated as neck & neck all year in our D5 rankings; however, GRCC has opened up a bit of lead of late, no doubt driven by their impressive win over Portland in Week 12. Right now, we expect to GRCC to edge Gladwin out by 4 points, but if GRCC continues on trend, the spread could be wider.
Frankenmuth may be putting together quietest, most impressive season together of any team in the State. The Eagles are 12-0 and quite highly rated by the model - we have them as #5 overall in the State. We think this track record proves too much for Country Day, with the Eagles projected to prevail by 3 scores.
The Miners of Negaunee are one of two UP teams projected to make the finals in 11-man football. Their rating has jumped up a bit of late, and they now come in as the #2 team in the Division, surpassing Clinton. We like them by two scores over Reed City.
West Catholic was rated neck & neck with Clinton throughout the regular season. Since then, they’ve rattled off impressive victories over Constantine and Lansing Catholic, and their rating has surged accordingly. We like them by 13 over the Red Wolves.
In one of the more surprising spreads of the week, TCSF is rated a 4 touchdown favorite over New Lothrop. If you look back at the two team’s common opponents, you will see why this is surprising: TCSF beat Lumen Christi by 7, and New Lothrop beat them by 5. So what’s the deal? The model is clearly weighting away from this result and towards TCSF’s blow out win last week over Ithaca … we will see how correct that is on Saturday.
On the other side in D7, we think Napoleon’s impressive run ends this week. Lumen Christi may have started the year 0-3, but the model has affirmed them as the second best team in the Division. We have the Titans by 3 scores over the Pirates.
In our final division, we have #1 OL Whiteford with the second highest spread of the week: we like the Bobcats by 5 scores over Everest.
The other side of the bracket will likely be a much closer affair: our model likes Iron Mountain by 3. However, if you were to ask us where our math is ‘most wrong’ in Week 13, we would point you to this game: the model has underrated the Bearcats of Ubly all season, and we think that may be happening here again. Don’t be surprised if Ubly continues their run and wins big.
At the link below, you can check out the updated playoff brackets for all 10 MHSAA divisions:
Region Coaches of the Year
The MHSFCA just dropped their regional coaches of the year this week. Did your coach make the list? Check it out at the link below:
That’s all for today! We hope everyone has a great Round 4 of the Playoffs.
Check back here on Wednesday for our second annual State Final Preview Guide.
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